Brexit Unknowns

So much about the mechanics, the legal effects and the policy consequences of Brexit is unclear or unknown. Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union, which allows Member States to leave the European Union, has never been used before. Its meaning and how it will be used are not entirely clear. The UK exit negotiation process has not yet started and will not start formally until notice of the intention to leave the EU is given under Article 50 TEU. The Prime Minister has said this will be done before the end of March 2017. The exit negotiations will last two years, or longer if all the other EU Member States agree an extension. The biggest ‘unknown’ is what the withdrawal agreement and any other agreements linked to Brexit will contain. Almost all policy questions depend on the outcome of the exit negotiations and the kind of agreement(s) reached. Most Brexit ‘unknowns’ are therefore predicated on this main ‘unknown’. We don’t know how long the process will take or even when it will start. We can’t really calculate the economic impact or say for sure how the Devolved Nations will be affected. We don’t know what the withdrawal agreement will look like or what other agreements the UK will negotiate with the EU to settle future relations.