Leaving the European Union: The UK and Ireland

There has been speculation about the impact of the UK leaving the European Union on Northern Ireland, in particular in terms of peace and security, and trade. Questions raised include whether the peace process will survive, whether cross-border peace programmes will remain and whether border controls will need to change. For example, according to Northern Ireland’s Deputy First Minister, Martin McGuinness, leaving the EU “will undermine all-Ireland bodies and cooperation created by the peace process and it will harden partition”. Others dispute this, arguing that there will be little or no impact. This view has been expressed, for example, by the House of Commons Northern Ireland Affairs Committee, who observed before the referendum that “the peace process has ultimately been successful because of the commitment of successive UK and Irish governments and the willingness of politicians and the communities they represent to put aside past differences sufficiently to allow Northern Ireland to be governed peacefully”. In July 2016, the Irish Prime Minister, Enda Kenny, and the UK Prime Minister, Theresa May, reaffirmed “the importance of the partnership between our two governments as co-guarantors of the Good Friday Agreement, and in supporting the peace process, and in contributing to stability and continued progress in Northern Ireland”. In terms of trading in both goods and services between the UK and Ireland, the Office for National Statistics reported that 5 percent of the UK’s exports in 2014 went to Ireland, worth £28 billion, whilst 3 percent of the UK’s imports came from Ireland, worth £17 billion. Some commentators and organisations, such as IBEC, who represent businesses in Ireland, have argued that the decision to leave the EU would be a “major blow to Ireland and the EU”. Supporting this view, Martin McGuinness has warned against the UK leaving the EU customs union. This House of Lords Library briefing provides background to two key areas identified as being potentially affected by the UK’s withdrawal from the EU. The first area is peace and security, which encompasses the peace process signed following the 30 year conflict in Northern Ireland (commonly referred to as ‘the Troubles’), border controls and the Common Travel Area. The second area is trade, particularly the bilateral trade relationship between UK and Ireland. This briefing examines the current peace and security, and trade situation, and discusses the potential implications of the UK leaving the EU, drawing upon commentary from UK and Irish heads of governments, political parties, think tanks and organisations.