Globalization scenarios – challenges and responses

The global economy is experiencing a period of rapid upheaval. Technological advances and growing rivalries are tugging at the world’s power structures as major economic players engage in a geostrategic competition. The United States, China, Europe and other ambitious actors must align their economies to reflect the emerging realities. The Covid-19 pandemic, moreover, is giving this development both a unique dynamic and an indefinite outcome. What the world order will eventually look like remains completely uncertain. In light of the many possible contingencies, the Bertelsmann Stiftung, with support from the Federation of German Industries (Bundesverband der Deutschen Industrie, BDI), organized a series of workshops at which various configurations of
future developments were discussed along with their impact on the German economy. In cooperation with the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI) and representatives from business and politics, five scenarios were developed on what the future of globalization might look like. The scenarios served as the basis for some 30 discussions involving over 70 participants from business organizations, trade associations and political institutions. The key questions were the impact the individual scenarios would have on German companies, along with potential responses and strategic conclusions.